December 21, 2003

Libya’s fatal blow to axis of evil

THE end of the threat posed to world peace and secure oil supplies by the “axis of evil” is emerging this weekend as the real prize that Tony Blair and George Bush have secured for Christmas.

Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi took the decision to renounce all weapons of mass destruction (WMD) on Friday night, but while at first it was thought this only had implications for Libya it is now clear that his decision has scuppered a secret partnership between Libya, Iran and North Korea formed with the intention of developing an independent nuclear weapon.

New documents revealed yesterday show that the three were working on the nuclear weapons programme at a top-secret underground site near the Kufra Oasis of the Sahara in southeastern Libya. The team was made up of North Korean scientists, engineers and technicians, as well as some Iranian and Libyan nuclear scientists.

North Korea and Iran, originally dubbed by Bush as the axis of evil along with Iraq, avoided detection by the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) inspectors by each member farming out vital sections of its projects to its fellow members.

Iran, which is now in the final stages of uranium enrichment for its program, is badly hit, having counted on fitting into place key parts of its WMD project made in Libya. North Korea may also be forced to scale back the production of nuclear devices as well as counting the loss of a lucrative source of income for its Scuds and nuclear technology.

Yesterday, Tripoli acted swiftly to prove its commitment to the world at large when the head of the IAEA, Mohamed ElBaradei, met a senior Libyan official in Vienna to discuss eliminating the programme.
[Do you think it's killing old ElBaradei to see his fellow Muslims once so bellicose and threatening become so pliant and tractable?--Jen]

Almost 15 years to the day since Gaddafi’s agents brought down a PanAm jet over Lockerbie [I thought this was close myself as I seem to remember those poor college kids from Syracuse University on that plane being killed at Christmastime.--J.T.] and eight months after US and British troops toppled Saddam Hussein, the Libyan leader has now opened the prospect of an end to sanctions and a return of US oil firms.

The news has delighted three American oil companies, Marathon, Amerada Hess, and ConocoPhillips whose Libyan leases were about to expire. They all pulled out of Libya in 1986 after the US imposed strict sanctions against the regime.
[Viva Ronaldus Magnus! He was the one who started putting Gaddafi in his place!]

Tripoli’s announcement on Friday was the culmination of secret talks with Britain and the US launched around the time of the Iraq invasion. The initial approach to discuss how to bring Libya in from the cold was made by Libya’s chief of intelligence, Musa Qusa, who contacted the British government in March, amid preparations for war on Iraq.

“You could say that these discussions followed on from the Lockerbie contacts,” a spokesman for Blair said yesterday. It was in March that the deal was done by Libya to settle with the families of the victims of Pan Am Flight 103.
[Plus, there was the added motivation Momar had of watching on his TV as over 250,000 armed and equipped men and women amassing on Iraq's borders!]

Months of secret diplomatic activity followed which led to the clandestine three-week visit to at least 10 sites in Libya. British and US weapons experts who inspected laboratories and military factories in October and early December established that Libyan scientists were “developing a nuclear fuel cycle intended to support nuclear weapons development.” The British team also saw “significant quantities of chemical agent” and “bombs designed to be filled with chemical agent.”

Following the visit, Sir Nigel Sheinwald, Blair’s national security adviser, and Condoleezza Rice, Bush’s national security adviser, held intense negotiations with Libyan officials in the days leading up to Friday’s declaration.

Blair had his first-ever telephone conversation with Gaddafi on Thursday, in which they discussed the declaration.
[...]
The breakthrough capped a week of positive developments for London and Washington that began with the capture of Saddam Hussein in Iraq and followed with a pledge from Iran to submit to unfettered inspections of its nuclear industry.
[I'm still not sure we can rely on the Iranians to keep their word, such as it is, but this "surrender" of Gaddafi's makes the inspections that much more likely!]

Bush implied in his remarks at the White House on Friday that there would now be reciprocity. “As the Libyan government takes these essential steps and demonstrates its seriousness, its good faith will be returned. Libya can regain a secure and respected place among the nations, and over time, achieve far better relations with the United States.”
[This probably means also, "We won't invade your country, unless you make us, as Saddam did."]

What a week! It was only a week ago at about this time of the morning (3:30 AM Dallas time) that news of Saddam's capture was beginning to break...
Of course, I was initially thrilled to hear of Momar's capitulation to the West on WMDs because it simply meant that it would be one less rogue state in the world that would harbor Islamist terrorists and/or provide the money, political support and actual WMDs for Islamofascist killers.
If this story proves true--and I'm betting that it will--that Libya was aiding and abetting both the NorKs and the Iranian mullahs proliferate nuclear weapons, as well as providing technical support for chemical and biological weaponry and that now Tripoli will no longer be doing that, then this is a huge and stunningly wonderful development!
It's plain that Momar was none too keen to dig a spider hole and hope that US Special Forces didn't find him, should his bellicosity have brought things to that state of affairs as it did his old buddy and ally Saddam.
If Gaddafi's decision to disarm also stops the NorKs and the Iranians in their tracks on their way to having the bomb (or more accurately bombs), not to mention ICBMs that can deliver chemical and biological weapons to Europe, Israel and even the USA, this is very, very good news.
I say God bless Momar Gaddafi for having the wisdom and courage to get out of lockstep with his Arab/Islamist brothers and to make this most wise decision!
As President Bush said, "You are either with us or you're with the terrorists." and it seems Mr. Momar wants the world to know that he is now decidely and publicly with us.
May peace and blessings be upon him and also upon Mssrs. Bush and Blair!
The Bush Doctrine works.