Iraqis are likely to say they want to live in a democracy, though they don't necessarily understand how it works.
Some pollsters who have done nationwide surveys of Iraq in recent months talked about their findings at a meeting this week of the American Association for Public Opinion Research.
One barrier to democracy is that many in the country need more information about how it would work, their research suggests.
"There's the sense that people in Iraq know they want democracy, but they don't know how to get there," said Christoph Sahm, director of Oxford Research International.
Sahm's firm conducted its first nationwide poll of Iraq last fall, and conducted another in February for ABC News, the British Broadcasting Corp., the German broadcasting network ARD and the Japanese network NHK. Oxford is continuing to poll in Iraq.
Richard Burkholder, director of international polling for Gallup, said the type of government Iraqis preferred was a multiparty democracy like those in many Western European countries.
"Very low down the list is an Islamic theocracy, in which mullahs and religious leaders have a lot of influence, such as in Iran," said Burkholder, who polled in Baghdad in August and nationwide in late March and early April for CNN and USA Today.
In the most recent Gallup poll, four in 10 said they preferred a multiparty parliamentary democracy -- that was the form of government most often mentioned.
When Oxford Research International asked Iraqis in a separate poll to name the party they favored or the candidate they backed, the majority offered no preference on either question.
[This is real progress! Don't you imagine that, in the past, they would have named a Muslim sect or a clerical leader like al-Sistani or al-Sadr?--Jen]
For Sahm, the inability or unwillingness to answer those questions indicates Iraqis have much to learn about how democracies and political parties work after decades living in a country ruled by a dictator.
Sahm and Burkholder said they've found Iraqis have a sense of optimism about the future of their country. But they understand that nothing can be achieved until the nation is more secure.
[This must be why Bremer, SecState Powell and other Coalition leaders expressed their willingness to leave after June 30...because they're pretty confident they won't be asked!--J.T.]
Both pollsters found Iraqis very willing to share their feelings.
Burkholder recounted how a transitional Iraqi government minister initially told his team Iraqis would not talk to pollsters. But as soon as the minister left the room, another Iraqi laughed and told the Gallup pollster: "Don't pay any attention to him, he's been in Minneapolis for the last 19 years."
Added Sahm, "The response has been tremendous. We go into 100 households and only four or five refuse. It's unheard of."
A recent Pew Research Center study of response levels in the United States found that only about one in four people contacted agreed to participate in a survey conducted over several days.
Both pollsters found Iraqis growing more impatient with the presence of coalition troops, even before the prison abuse controversy emerged. However, most favored getting rid of Saddam Hussein.
Iraqis have identified some successful areas in post-Saddam Iraq, the pollsters found.
"One of the things that comes up again and again as a success in the transition so far is education," Sahm said. He also mentioned increasing trust in the Iraqi police and the new Iraqi army.
"When we see the images of war and terror on the TV screen," Sahm said, "it's hard to believe that behind all of this, many Iraqis are leading normal lives and going about their business."
them about democracy.
And someone (Bush, Bremer, Abizaid, Kimmitt?) was a genius to use newly constituted Iraqi troops (ex-Baathist or no) to keep the peace in Iraq, rather than exclude them and have U.S. troops exclusively do it and incur resentment.
All in all, I'd say that the "march up" to the handover on 30 June is going rather well, in spite of the Abu Ghraib scandal and the casualties we've incurred in the seiges of Najaf and Falluja.
If we can hang on for another 6 weeks, I truly think that the Coalition will be home free and that Iraq will be well and truly on her way to being a secular democracy!
Home
