July 09, 2004

James has been doing some outstanding writing, as always, but today's Bleat is particularly good (as was yesterday's on Michael Moore) on the solution to the problem of Iranian nuclear saber rattling:
LILEKS (James) The Bleat

[...]

Related note: I wonder what’s keeping Israel from taking out Iran’s nuclear bomb-making plants. Either they know it’s too late, or they know the facilities can’t be destroyed by the conventional means, or they have good enough intel to know there’s still some time and they can wait until after the election. And then they’ll go no matter who wins. If they attack now, and Bush gives them the thumbs-up, it could cut either way domestically. Kerry would have to approve or disapprove, for example. I would guess the latter, lest he want to make the UN and the IAEA look like the dithering fools they are. If Kerry approves, then he’s thrown his lot in with the cowboy-unilateralist axis, and if people want that they’ll vote for the genuine article. The far-left fringe will howl that this is all a Zionist plot to influence the election. The far-right fringe will howl that this is all a Zionist plot to influence the election. Most Americans would look at satellite photos of demolished nuke-bomb factories and think: good thing.

I know *this American* would, but I don't think we should depend on the Israelis to take care of those Iranian nuke bomb factories for us if for no other reason than that this is everyone's problem and also because the Iranians are thought to have at least 3 nuclear plants with most of the structures hidden underground, it may not be possible for Israel to pull an "Osirak" type hit on Iran and end the problem all by themselves.
Lileks then goes on to opine in a "wish it away" kind of fashion:

We’ll see. When it comes to Iran, I fear that either the bombs get bombed or the bombs get used. The latter is what I always thought would be the end result of the forces set in motion by 9/11, and I still hope I am wrong. I’ve been wrong enough to be hopeful.

I'm afraid he's right about the "bomb them or get bombed" opinion and it very well may come to that.
Our only other alternatives are a military invasion to effect régime change as we did with Iraq or in the apparently least likely, but cheeriest, scenario, the people of Iran will overthrow the mullahs in a popular uprising and voluntarily dismantle the nukes.
Let's follow James, then and hope and pray for that.