February 22, 2005

Forgive me for citing Steyn twice in the same day, but he's really been on his game of late:
Atlanticist small talk is all that's left

"The change for the moment is more in tone than substance," wrote Alec Russell, reporting on President Bush's European outreach in yesterday's Telegraph. You don't say.

My colleague is almost right. In Brussels yesterday, the President's "charm offensive" consisted of saying the same things he always says – on Iraq, Iran, Palestine, the illusion of stability, the benefits of freedom, the need for Egypt and Saudi Arabia to get with the programme, etc. But, tone-wise, the Bush charm offensive did its best to keep the offensiveness reasonably charming – though his references to anti-Semitism and the murder of Theo van Gogh by a Dutch Islamist were a little more pointed than his hosts would have cared for.
[Kudos to President Bush that he mentioned this!
He also talked about the increased anti-Semitism in Old Europe, too.
We'd all like to know what the EUropeans plan to do about the ticking time bomb of jihadis in their midst.--Jen]

But, in the broader sense vis-à-vis Europe, the administration is changing the tone precisely because it understands there can be no substance. And, if there's no substance that can be changed, what's to quarrel about? International relations are like ex-girlfriends: if you're still deluding yourself you can get her back, every encounter will perforce be fraught and turbulent; once you realise that's never gonna happen, you can meet for a quick decaf latte every six – make that 10 – months and do the whole hey-isn't-it-terrific-the-way-we're-able-to-be-such-great-friends routine because you couldn't care less. You can even make a few pleasant noises about her new romance (the so-called European Constitution) secure in the knowledge he's a total loser.

World leaders are always most expansive when there's least at stake: the Queen's Christmas message to the Commonwealth is the ne plus ultra of this basic rule. In Her Majesty's beloved Commonwealth family, talking about enduring ties became a substitute for having them.

That's the salient feature of transatlantic dialogue since 9/11: it's become Commonwealth-esque - all airy assertions about common values, ties of history, all meaningless. Even Donald Rumsfeld is doing it. At the Munich Conference on Collective Security the other day, he gave a note-perfect rendition of empty Atlanticist Euro-goo: "Our collective security depends on our co-operation and mutual respect and understanding," he declared, with a straight face.

Rummy's appearance in Munich was unscheduled. A German federal prosecutor was investigating a war crimes complaint against the US Defence Secretary and, although it seems unlikely even the silliest showboating Europoseurs would have been foolish enough to pull a Pinochet on him, Rumsfeld made a point of not setting foot on German soil until Berlin put an end to that nonsense. That tells you more about transatlantic relations than anything in the speech.
[Isn't Rummy the greatest?--J.T.]

But, just for the record, the "collective security" blather is completely bogus. In the column I wrote on September 11, 2001, I mentioned en passant that among the day's consequences would be the end of Nato - "a military alliance for countries that no longer in any recognisable sense have militaries". I can't remember why I mentioned Europe and Nato in that 9/11 column. It seems an odd thing to be thinking about as the towers were falling.

But it was clear, even then, that the day's events would test the Atlantic relationship and equally clear that it would fail that test. Later that week, for the first time in its history, Nato invoked its famous Article Five - the one about how an attack on one member is an attack on all. But, even as the press release was rolling off the photocopier, most of the "allies" in this post-modern alliance were insisting that the declaration didn't mean anything. "We are not at war," said Belgium. Norway and Germany announced that there would be no deployment of their forces.
[...]
A few months before 9/11, I happened to find myself sitting next to an eminent older statesman. "What is Nato for?" he wondered. "Well, you should know," I said. "You were secretary-general. You went into the office every day." With hindsight, he was asking the right question. On the other hand, if Nato is useless to America, it looks like being a goldmine for the Chinese, to whom the Europeans are bent on selling their military technology. Jacques Chirac is pitching this outreach to the politburo in lofty terms, modifying Harold Macmillan and casting Europe as Athens to China's Rome. I can't see it working, but the very attempt presumes that the transatlantic relationship is now bereft of meaning.
[...and that old Jacques is even acting "unilaterally," shall we say?, to promote France's military companies by letting the Chinese sign big contracts.]

Nato will not be around circa 2015 - which is why the Americans are talking it up right now. An organisation that represents the fading residual military will of mostly post-military nations is marginally less harmful than the EU, which is the embodiment of their pacifist delusionsBut, either way, there's not a lot to talk about. Try to imagine significant numbers of French, German or Belgian troops fighting alongside American forces anywhere the Yanks are likely to find themselves in the next decade or so: it's not going to happen.

America and Europe both face security threats. But the difference is America's are external, and require hard choices in tough neighbourhoods around the world, while the EU's are internal and, as they see it, unlikely to be lessened by the sight of European soldiers joining the Great Satan in liberating, say, Syria. That's not exactly going to help keep the lid on the noisier Continental mosques.

So what would you do in Bush's shoes? Slap 'em around a bit? What for? Where would it get you? Or would you do exactly what he's doing? Climb into the old soup-and-fish, make small talk with Mme Chirac and raise a glass of champagne to the enduring friendship of our peoples: what else is left? This week we're toasting the end of an idea: the death of "the West".

Gulp. Mark, that's pretty rough talk, but it's probably true.
I can't help but think that he's right also about what President Bush is up to with this trip--just to "make nice."
And to give the EUros one last chance to be on the right side of the fight when all h*ll breaks loose (again).
Yes, the EU and more specifically France, will most likely sell weapons to the Chinese and that will put us all into an interesting new world.
And the Iranians will continue to "negotiate" with the E3 (Britain, France and Germany) about halting their development of nuclear weapons, but the mullahs don't mean it: they're merely stalling for time.
Is part of the EUro smugness due the certain knowledge that if Iran becomes a real problem, the U.S. and President Bush will do the heavy lifting to take care of them, something we've been doing in NATO since its inception?
What if Iran does have nuke-tipped missiles that can reach EUrope?
The Israelis say that Iran is 6 months' away from having a nuke, but I think they're "making nice" also--I think Iran has a least one bomb already.
But back to those EUro small sausages...EUrope has painted itself into a corner militarily, economically and politically.
One thing they're good at, however, is listening to speeches followed by 5-course haute cuisine dinners and this Bush is able to provide them along with the straight talk.
Bush is stating what needs to be said to our "friends" and "allies;" you can't ask more of our President than that.
He's made it clear through our actions since 9/11 (and before) that America will do what she has to do to protect and defend herself, with or without the Axis of Weasels.
The President pointed out certain ways that EUrope was headed for trouble and warned them accordingly.
Don't be surprised, though, if our soldiers end up going back over there someday soon to bail them out for the 3rd time.
(Maybe President Bush went to see for himself if they're in a big a mess as he was told it was by Rice and Rumsfeld...No! It's worse!)
We do live in interesting times and in a brave, new world.