June 28, 2005

Will Iran's new leader revive the '79 Revolution or had it never died?

The BBC's John Simpson takes a rose-colored view of the new Iranian leader with all the usual anti-U.S. bias we've come to expect from the Beeb:
Iran's new leader: a familiar face?


[...]
Ahmadinejad was a founder of the group of young activists who swarmed over the embassy wall and held the diplomats and embassy workers hostage for 444 days.
[...]
He is the first non-cleric to hold the job since Ayatollah Khomeini died in 1989, yet he is much more fundamentalist than either of the religious figures who have been in office since then.

Many Abadgaran members are like him: intense, strong believers still in Ayatollah Khomeini's revolution of 1978-9.

Abroad, the Americans were the least surprised by the result. They assume anyway that Iran is a country seething with hatred for the US and determined to dominate the region by [nucleal] threat and undercover terrorism.

The British, French and Germans were the most taken aback, because they had previously argued that the Iranian government was basically pretty moderate and wanted to reach an accommodation with the West.
[More fools they!
It shows you why the whole EU thing hasn't been going well, doesn't it, that they could live with such delusion and inane "happy talk."--Jen]

So now it seems as though the conservatives control not simply Iran's basic religious and political structure through the supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, but also the government itself.

The gridlock between conservatives and reformers which has dominated Iranian politics since 1989 has finally been resolved.

Iran's rulers are now at one in their Islamic fundamentalism.
[...]
Iranian politics are as complex and sophisticated as any I have observed around the world.

The complexity is increased by Iran's constitution, which gives the unelected religious leadership greater powers than those of the elected president.

This was why President Khatami, who wanted to open the country more to the West, never could. The gridlock always stopped him.
[I think Mr. Simpson is being more than kind here;
the political "gridlock" didn't stop Khatami. The mullahs did!--J.T.]

President Ahmadinejad will certainly move in the opposite direction. He has already reversed many of Khatami's earlier changes in Tehran.
[These were probably superficial reforms to allow little freedoms that Ahmadinejad will now do away with.

If his followers harass people in the streets, attacking men who shave and women who show their hair, wear make-up and bright colours, there will be much greater social tension and the possibility of future violence.
[I doubt this matters a whit to the Moolahs!
In fact, I'd bet it's what they want.
With Iran sandwiched between newly-free and democratic Iraq and Afghanistan, and with Freedom on the march throughout the Middle East, the mullahs would see a rappel à l'ordre(return to order) as being just what Iran needs as radical Islam is under siege.--Jen]

The implications of this will be worrying to the religious leadership. It is the better-off in Iran who usually want to follow Western styles.
[...and who are making all the trouble for the mullahs. They'll wonder why they haven't confiscated all their money yet!]
And although Ayatollah Khamenei is a religious conservative, he will not want class warfare breaking out in the streets.
[He doesn't want any warfare breaking out on the streets, but dissent and revolt against the present government is rampant throughout Iran.
If it's violent, it's because Iranian security police usually commit most of the violence themselves.]
So although President Ahmadinejad won a sizeable majority last Friday, he will not necessarily be able to do what he wants.
[Bull!
I dare say he'll be given a free hand to "restore order" by the mad mullahs.]

But Mr Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Khamenei will certainly agree about one thing - the nuclear issue.
Iran believes it lives in a difficult neighbourhood, with Israel, China, Russia, India and Pakistan - all nuclear powers, real or potential - close by, and the US over the horizon.

Iran wants the nuclear option too.

The US is no overwhelming threat to Iran now, unless it decides to attack it from the air and alienate world opinion utterly.
[Oh, no!
We'd "alienate world opinion utterly" for taking out these Islamist thugs and killers...when do we start?
I've had a bone to pick with these b*st*rds since 1979!--Jen]

The best the British, French and Germans can do is persuade Iran to be more cautious and tactful in following its nuclear ambitions. Ayatollah Khamenei may see the sense of that.
[Ha! This Simpson man sounds so inanely wrong about the Iranian mullahs that I believe he must believe this tripe!
Wish he were right, but he's not.
How cautious and tactful is yelling and meaning "Death to America" for 25 years?]

But unless I have remembered him wrongly from the old days, caution and tact are not qualities you immediately associate with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.


Even this British Kool-Aid drinker can't vouch for his "boy" Ahmadinejad in the end.
I feel real pity for the Iranian people who have to live under this evil régime; it sounds like life will get a lot worse under the A-man than it's been under Khatami and that wasn't all that great.
It wouldn't surprise me to see this new guy set up a Taliban-like rule, with the mullahs' full blessing, if you will.
We can only pray that they will find the wherewithal to overthrow the mullahs by themselves and some of them have already been killed trying.
They say many Iranians voted for Ahmadinejad because he promised them a better economy, but Iran's economy--which was doing alright under the Shah--won't get any better ever under the tyranny of an Islamic theocracy.
As for the Islam Bomb, I think we all know they've either got one or more...or they're working on it 24/7.
This is basically a case of SSDD for Iran: Khatami didn't really reform anything, it was a sham to placate the restive Iranian people.
Whether the people will put up with more hardline Islamic government rather than less now remains to be seen.