July 22, 2005

NRO's Barbara Lerner believes that when Israel pulls out of Gaza on August 17, we'll be in more danger here at home and that Islamist terrorism will be given another shot in the arm so therefore, we should urge President Bush to stop PM Sharon from effecting the withdrawal. She explains why here:
Eyeless in Gaza

I couldn't disagree with her more.
The fact that Sharon has gone ahead with the withdrawal, even in the face of large and semi-violent protests and the opprobrium of "Far Right" Zionists who think he is "betraying" Israel and the Gaza settlers, speaks volumes about the level of his commitment to see this thing through and to give the "Palestinians" the state they've been saying for decades that they want.
Ms. Lerner should also have reason to believe that Sharon has the backing of President Bush, if not the rest of the "Quartet," if we can even speak of that group as a viable force, which I wouldn't.
Sharon knows that Bush's support is all that he needs, after he has won that of most Israelis.

Even though he was ahead of events, the person who predicted what will happen next was WOT web warrior Steven den Beste and that was over a year ago, when Arafat was still alive.
His remarks on Israeli disengagement still ring true over a year later and he adroitly ties in Israeli actions with our pursuit of the WOT in Iraq.
You really should read the whole thing and click around while you're over there, but here are the key parts:

[...]
But once the wall is in place, and Israeli forces have been withdrawn from Palestinian territories, Israel will largely be able to ignore the Palestinians; at least to the extent that the war will no longer occupy center stage in Israel politically and economically. The wall will deprive the Palestinians of the only real weapon they had in the war. And when violent civil war breaks out amongst the Palestinian factions, their situation will become immeasurably worse in every way.

There will be far more Palestinian casualties than there have been in Israeli operations, because the Palestinians will not be as restrained as the Israelis have been. And once civil war begins, international support for the Palestinians will plummet. (Even further than it already has.) And if that happens, it's not likely to end any sooner than the Lebanese civil war did.
Palestinian "unity" was always a myth but even the semblance of unity is breaking down. Once it ceases to be possible to even pretend that there exists some Palestinian leader who can make diplomatic deals on their behalf, then it no longer makes any sense even for the Europeans to demand that Israel negotiate with "The Palestinians" and make major concessions to them. Who, exactly, among the Palestinians would Israel make such a deal with, and why would there be any reason to believe that the Palestinians would live up to the terms of such a deal? (Even ignoring the fact that they've never come even remotely close to complying with the terms of any previous deal they've made.)
Now even the pretense of unity is breaking down.
[We've seen this on an almost daily basis in the Paleo areas since Abbu Mazen took over the PA.--Jen] Major Palestinian militant factions are beginning to try to treat with Israel independently, or to deny that they are doing so. And they're making concessions, though the offers they're making remain preposterous.
[...]
...He [Arafat] says that completion of the wall will kill off the "roadmap", and he's right: once the wall is complete, Israel won't need the "roadmap". (But he's also wrong. The "roadmap" can't be killed because it was never alive.)

Arafat has denounced Sharon and claims that Sharon is "not serious about peace". Of course, Sharon is looking for peace for Israel and damned well doesn't care if the Palestinians end up killing each other. What Arafat is actually worried about is the fact that Sharon has found a way to wrap the situation up in a way which is moderately satisfactory for Israel, without Palestinian consent and without Palestinian cooperation. Arafat does want peace, but the only peace he wants for Israelis is the peace of the grave. Now he sees his last hope of achieving that vanishing in months when the wall is completed.
[...]

One of the dirty little secrets of this struggle is that most of the Arabs despise the Palestinians and don't want anything to do with them. Some of them have forcibly expelled large numbers of Palestinians who had been living within their borders. Part of why they've supported the Palestinian struggle is because they don't want the Palestinians living in their nations. But that's exactly what the Saudis are claimed to have proposed.

So I don't think this is a credible offer, but it's a noteworthy event nonetheless: it abandons the "right of return". Under the agreement, Israel would not have to absorb an influx of Palestinians.
That, combined with reports that Syria is also beginning to talk to Israel (albeit making initial demands at least as preposterous as the demands made by Hamas), and that Egypt is putting pressure on the Palestinians, makes me cautiously optimistic that things are beginning to work out the way I hoped they would.

This is yet another sign that the invasion of Iraq was a valuable step in the process of winning this war, and that as hoped it is having strong effects in the entire region.

How prescient Den Beste is will be revealed in the next few weeks, but I think he's bang on the money, even though there have been "developments" since he wrote this good piece, most of which he foresaw:
Arafat's dead, Lebanon is trying to reestablish its sovereignity from Baathist Syria, Egypt is trying, however painfully, to come around to cooperating with the Allied Coalition and to enact democratic reforms and Syria, under Bashir, is under huge pressure from the West to follow "Palestine" and end its support for terrorist murder in both Israel and Iraq.
Dr. Condi was in Israel today meeting with Sharon about the "day after" disengagement:
Rice, Sharon discuss 'day after'

A few hours before Rice's visit, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon visited the West Bank settlement of Ariel and – in a move sure to displease the Palestinians – pledged that the Ariel settlement bloc would always remain a part of Israel.

Sharon's declaration, following the protests over the last three days and less than a month before disengagement from Gaza, seemed designed to underline to Rice that he takes the letter given to him by President George W. Bush when the two met in April 2004 very seriously, as well as to reassure his Likud supporters that withdrawal from Gaza will not be followed by a deep withdrawal in the West Bank.
[...]
In greeting Rice, Shalom said Israel is "on the verge of a most crucial and decisive moment in the implementation of the disengagement plan," which he said has provoked a "difficult internal debate," and on the other hand "brings new hope to us and our future generations."

Shalom said Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas had for eight months said he was too weak to deal with the terrorists effectively, but "as the actions of the last two days have shown he does have the ability to stand up to Hamas, what he has lacked so far is the will."

Shalom said that actions to stop Hamas and Islamic Jihad terror must not be "a temporary response to specific attacks, it must be adopted as a proactive strategy and a principle of policy, so peace efforts can have a chance of success."

So, Sharon has hit the ball into Abbas's court, where it belongs.
It's up to him and the various groups of IslamoCrazies in the Palestinian areas to make their newly isolated, but un-occupied state free, democratic and terror-free.
Whether this can be accomplished remains for us all to see...
It is going to be a hairy few weeks and months, make no mistake.
Once the "Palestinians" realize that they've been isolated, their reaction won't be pretty.
Certainly not at first.
But whom the gods would destroy, they will first give what they want.
The Paleos will get their state, probably to their sorrow, despair, and even doom.
The only way out of this mess is through it--We can only thank God that President Bush did some thinking outside of the box, approached the problem in a new way and stopped the inane go-nowhere "peace process."
Maybe once the smoke clears after the internecine fighting is over, some "moderate" democracy-loving Muslims will be left to pick up the pieces.
The U.N. guy is hopeful (Heh-heh. Aren't they great at happy talk?):
Gaza withdrawal could help jump-start Mideast peace, UN envoy tells council

[...]
Israel's UN Ambassador Dan Gillerman said the pullout will proceed despite "the absence of any demonstrable leadership on the Palestinian side."

"Indeed as Israel has repeatedly stated, this initiative can pave the way to implement the road map, and lead the parties back to the road to a negotiated resolution of the conflict," Gillerman told the council.

De Soto's speech was followed by a day-long council debate that Arab nations called to focus on last week's approval by the Israeli cabinet of the final details of the separation fence in Jerusalem, which will cut off 55,000 Palestinian residents from the capital.

Algeria's UN Ambassador Abdallah Baali said the fence's completion, expected in September, was "a serious development" that would completely isolate Jerusalem from the West Bank.

Arab nations have criticized Israel for ignoring a UN General Assembly resolution adopted in July 2004 demanding that Israel demolish the structure as ordered by the World Court.

In the same Den Beste essay I linked above, he talks about the "right of return" and Palestinian demands for a capital in (East) Jerusalem, a demand now made moot by the erection of the fence around Jerusalem proper:

The sure demonstration that the Palestinians never abandoned their goal of a one-state solution was that they never relented on their demand for the "right of return". That was always the deepest and most important issue, because it was the one concession that Israel could never make and would never make. If Israel had accepted it, demographic trends would have resulted in a Palestinian majority inside Israel within 30 years, permitting the Palestinians to take over via the ballot box what they never succeeded in conquering via armed struggle.

The public rhetoric about the "right of return" has never truly dealt with the true purpose of that demand, but no one in a position of power has ever been fooled by that rhetoric; they all know what it really meant. It has always been the key point; it has always been the one concession Israel could never make and would never even consider making.
[...]
...Once the wall is complete and Israel disengages from the West Bank, there will be no hope that the Palestinians could eventually take Israel back. And there is a very high chance, approaching certainty, that the Palestinian interfaction power struggle would turn violent and lead to an extremely bloody Palestinian civil war similar to the one that took place in Lebanon.
[...]
In every way, the decision to build the wall puts time on Israel's side, where time used to be viewed as being on the side of the Palestinians. Once the wall is complete, the Israelis can withdraw their military forces from the West Bank. Part of why the Palestinian power struggle hasn't turned violent is that the Israelis have been keeping the peace. When they are gone, it will turn ugly very rapidly.
And with the wall in place, it will become far more difficult for the Palestinians to make attacks on Israel.

Worst of all, the wall de facto draws the line of demarcation for the two-state solution, and the longer that it exists without any formal agreement between the Israelis and Palestinians, the less chance there would eventually be of renegotiating the border, even if the Palestinians ultimately accepted a two-state agreement.
[I think the only question to be faced in the future is whether the Paleos can hang onto and run their "state."--Jen]

Meanwhile, America's war continues and shows no sign of being abandoned, and the deep American strategy in the war (to inspire political and cultural reform in the entire region) has become apparent. Our efforts to try to create a functioning democracy in Iraq are, and are intended to be, a profound threat to the corrupt autocratic governments in neighboring nations, and since they're the primary source of support for the Palestinians, it's a threat to the Palestinian cause as well. (Which is probably why many of the "foreign jihadis" in Iraq have been Palestinians.)
[Don't forget that Zaqarwi himself , head AQ troublemaker in Iraq, is Palestinian.--J.T.]

With these attacks on the London Tube and the revelations they've brought, it's already been a long, hot and tiring summer, but it's not over.
However (particularly if you believe the Bible), we know that the Good Guys are going to win and the IslamoNazis don't have a lot going for them, especially given the fact that they worship death and murder.
The Israelis have fought and died for almost 60 years for this--it's high time they had the ability to enjoy their lovely and blessed democracy in peace and prosperity.
Pray for the peace of Jerusalem and let's K.B.O.

[Steven den Beste, I miss you and the Civilized World needs you to help fight this war!
I hope you can overcome some of your delibitating health problems--which I can relate to myself--to do some more of your incomparable commentary.]