August 01, 2005

The crumbling House of Saud
[Warning: Photo of hideous Fahd at the link!]

King Fahd, who died yesterday, was the Saudi leader who invited American troops into his kingdom to repel Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait, but he was also the world leader most responsible for creating the monstrous world of militant Islamism. Fahd's creation has come to plague not only the West but, like a Frankenstein run amuck, the Arab world, including his own kingdom, as well.

Fahd's just-appointed successor, his 81-year-old half brother King Abdullah, has been the de facto Saudi ruler since a stroke debilitated Fahd in 1995. The issue, however, is not Fahd's immediate successor but the survival of the House of Saud as a whole.
[...]
The House of Saud is facing a similar point of no return that is unlikely to be staved off for long by King Abdullah. The Saudis will likely be forced to turn to a "Gorbachev," leaving only the question of whether he is able to control the pace of reform in a way that allows the ruling clan to retain some of its power, or whether the entire system collapses.
[...]
...If anything, Bush has been tirelessly undermining the premise of the Saudi monarchy, namely that "stability" can be obtained through the total denial of democracy and human rights.

The question now is how actively the United States will nudge the Saudi leadership. In his first term, Bush spoke forcefully about the need to advance freedom, particularly in the Middle East, but refrained from mentioning particular countries, raising the question as to whether "friends" like Saudi Arabia and Egypt were exempt.

In his second term, Bush started naming names. In his February "State of the Union" address, Bush said, "The government of Saudi Arabia can demonstrate its leadership in the region by expanding the role of its people in determining their future. And the great and proud nation of ,b>Egypt, which showed the way toward peace in the Middle East, can now show the way toward democracy in the Middle East."

n June at Cairo University, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice spoke not just of the need for truly free elections in Egypt, but of the "brave citizens demanding accountable government" in Saudi Arabia. Rice continued her message to Riyadh, "many people pay an unfair price for exercising their basic rights. Three individuals in particular are currently imprisoned for peacefully petitioning their government. That should not be a crime in any country."

This sort of frank talk is revolutionary in the US-Saudi relationship. Yet it is barely a taste of what could be done. The Saudi human rights record, despite the image of having created a "modern state," is not dissimilar to that of the Taliban. The funding by Saudi "charities" of a global network of radical Islamist indoctrination continues. So does institutionalized anti-Semitism which, if it happened in place like Austria, would long ago have triggered an international boycott.

There is, in short, much to be done. Though the US has become blunter and bolder, it is still an open question whether America considers the House of Saud as the "devil it knows" and therefore preferable to most foreseeable alternatives.

Ultimately, however, the experience from the demise of the oddly-similar Soviet ideological gerontocracy indicates that collapse will come, even if the West foolishly tries to resist it. King Fahd's death may not mark the immediate end of an era, but it is a reminder that that end is coming.

Scary. Just what we need at this point in the Global War on Islamist Terror: the Fountainhead of the evil is ruled by a shaky oligarchy whose leader just died and the palace is filled with pro-jihadi factions.
Oh, and we're semi-dependent on them for our oil.
Gas prices rose sharply today on the news of Fahd's death, because he was king of OPEC, too.
I suppose the old boy couldn't live forever, but both CP Abdullah, the soon-to-be -crowned monarch, and now CP-to-be Sultan are octagenarians.
I thought that the resignation of Prince Bandar as SA's ambassador to the U.S. was rather ominous, perhaps signalling that "business as usual" between the U.S. and S.A. had come to an end, but maybe he rushed home to be around for the changing of the guard (?).
Stay clicked--this will be very interesting and have an impact on us here at home, although you wouldn't think a bunch of hopped-up Bedouins could accomplish that even 5 years ago!
We can only hope that one of the bad princes like Najef doesn't come into power--he controls one of their "security forces"(read "army") and backs violent jihad both at home and abroad.
Of course, noone will be happier than OBL if the Saudi royal House crumbles.
Meanwhile, British police are finding strong links between the lead 7/21 bomber
wannabe and the Kingdom of S.A. and Al Queda:
The trail of phone calls and money that lead to Saudi Arabia

POLICE are tracking the worldwide money trail behind the London bombers. They are also investigating the hundreds of telephone calls that the bombers made before the attacks.

Intelligence agencies are studying a series of disturbing communications from Britain to well-known al-Qaeda terrorists sheltering in Saudi Arabia to see if it leads to another terror cell sheltering in Britain.

The messages from Saudi Arabia include transfers of cash to Britain. At least one of the failed July 21 bombers spent time in Saudi Arabia.

If the Saudi royal family had taken their oil cash and invested it back in the Kingdom, they wouldn't be in such a precarious position today.
But nooooo.
They had to invest it globally in radicalized Islamist Jihad in mosques, madrassas and the funding of "martyrdom" operations.
"What you sow, you shall also reap."
King Fahd should count himself lucky that he died in his bed from old age.
His successor(s) may not have such good fortune.