August 05, 2005

Belmont Club's Wretchard made an informed opinion that the large death toll of Marines in the last week signalled that a major operation was underway in Iraq.
He elaborated on his theory more today:

There are probably many similar operations that are taking place along the river and to its north, as per the Di Rita briefing. One of them may have been undertaken by the US Marines at Haditha, during which 21 Marines were killed. One possible reason why this operation has been kept low key, despite its size, is that it may be literally ripping up the insurgent base of support along the upper Euphrates. If the LA Times article is accurate, the insurgents essentially took the whole population of Rawah with them; if the phenomenon is being repeated elsewhere, the displacement of the Sunni population must be huge. To the north there is the unsustaining desert; to the south across the river there is the sweep of the Marines; for the insurgents to leave the population in place would risk leaving intelligence in the hands of the Americans. This has got to hurt and it is only the beginning. The LA Times notes the abandonment of RPGs, sniper rifles, mortars -- stuff you wouldn't leave behind -- not willingly. The whole point of strangling the enemy lines of communication while building support bases is to set up the stage for pursuit. And they will be pursued. The focus of newspaper coverage in the coming days may abruptly shift from 'poor helpless Marines from Ohio' to 'we're slaughtering them! We're killers!' These are the hard choices of war, and as Hemingway once wrote "all stories, if continued far enough, end in death, and he is no true-story teller who would keep that from you."

Turns out he was right again:
U.S. Launches Attacks in Western Iraq

About 1,000 U.S. Marines and Iraqi forces launched attacks in western Iraq in an operation aimed at disrupting insurgents and foreign fighters in the Euphrates River valley, the U.S. military said Friday.

The operation, dubbed Quick Strike, began Wednesday with Iraqi soldiers and Marines positioning their units, said a military statement. They focused on an area centered around the cities of Haditha, Haqlaniyah, and Parwana, about 130 miles northwest of Baghdad.
[...]
The U.S. military has defended its operations in western Iraq, insisting it is reducing insurgent attacks, despite the deaths of the 14 Marines. The extremist Ansar al-Sunnah Army claimed responsibility in a Web posting and said its fighters used two bombs to destroy the vehicle.
[God rest the souls of those brave, wonderful Marines.--Jen]
[...]
"We still have deaths. We still have suicide car bombs," he said. "But the numbers we see indicate (the insurgents) can't generate the same tempo, and I think that's because we've had some degree of effect in interdicting these forces."

[U.S. Brig. Gen. Donald] Alston cited figures showing there were 13 car bombs in Iraq last week - the lowest weekly number since April. "There's a clear indication to me that the tempo has decreased."
[Surely Gen. Alston knows what he's talking about.--J.T.]

U.S. troops have stepped up operations in recent months in Anbar, the center of the Sunni Arab-dominated insurgency and a major avenue for foreign fighters infiltrating the country from Syria.

Alston warned that militants will likely rally their forces in a concerted effort to derail the country's political progress, including a referendum on the constitution in October and an election in December.
[And then there's the completion of the new Iraqi constitution which is scheduled for August 15.]
[...]

U.S. leaders, who pushed hard for the committee not to seek an extension on completing the charter, considers the constitutional process vital to maintain political momentum, undermine the insurgency and pave the way for the Americans and their coalition partners to draw down troops next year.
[...]
Al-Jaafari announced a new 12-point security plan. He gave few details but said it included steps to improve intelligence, protect infrastructure and prevent foreign fighters from entering the country.

"We will not hesitate in saying this: We are in a state of war. It is one of the most dangerous types of war because it is not a conventional or a war of borders," he said.

When both al-Jaafari and President Bush say "We are at war." on the same day, you know that the war is well and truly with us.
(No pretending by the Liberals allowed anymore.)
It is key that the Iraqis write their constitution and do so in 10 days' time.
So far, they seem to be on schedule and doing fine.
al-Jaafari's meeting with (radical) Shi'a clerics today went well and it looks as if he talked them out of having hard-line Islam at the center of new Iraqi government (Hallelujah!):
Iraqi PM: Sistani doesn't oppose Iraqi federalism

Iraq's top Shiite Muslim cleric does not oppose federalism in the country, one of the key points of dispute in drafting a new constitution, Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari said Friday.

The prime minister also hinted that the cleric wanted Islam to be the main source of legislation, something opposed by the Kurds and some Iraqi women activists.
[...]

"His eminence[Here, al-Jaafari is referring to Sistani.] is not against the principle of federalism, because it is the choice of the people," al-Jaafari told reporters. "The details of the process are left to the constitution."
[...]
Al-Jaafari later met with Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Saeed al-Hakim and radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.
[...]
Al-Sadr said every Iraqi should take part in the constitution but added that he will not take part in the planned Dec. 15 general elections because "I will not take part in the presence of occupiers but i will give the freedom to whoever wants to join."
[I'm so sick of this creep al-Sadr!
Al-Jaafari gives him far more respect than he deserves, but the scumbag can still create at least minor headaches, so I suppose it's a good thing to have him on board.--Jen]
[...]
Humam Hammoudi, chairman of the 71-member committee drafting the constitution, had called political leaders from the Kurdish, Sunni Arab and Shiite communities to meet Friday to see if they can forge compromises in order to finish the document by the Aug. 15 deadline. The meeting was rescheduled for Sunday.

All the reports from the MSM have indicated that Iraq was headed towards writing a constitution that would create a Shi'ite Islamic theocracy, too much like Iran for anyone's comfort.
If these reports are right, that's not going to happen. Thank God!
Keep your prayers going up that Iraq's "Founding Fathers" and Mothers pen the right founding document, keeping freedom and secular government at the forefront of their country's principles, rather than Taliban tyranny.
And continue praying for our soldiers as they face attacks from the terrorist bad guys determined to stop this from happening.